Basic sanitation's role over breeding sites maintenance for Aedes aegypti development during rain absence according to a fuzzy rule-based system

Basic sanitation refers to the set of services, infrastructures, and operational installations for the supply of drinking water, sanitary sewerage, and management of solid waste. A precarious basic sanitation service contributes to the spreading of water-diseases. The delimitation of the urban and rural areas supports the public policies of sanitation investment and vector-borne control. In continental land sized countries like Brazil, this categorization has the influence of subjective aspects from peri-urban areas. When we evaluate sanitation system efficiency, we take into account that the total population services matter, which helps to understand and avoid frontier region border diseases that can potentially spread to urban regions and cause outbreaks. Recent episodes of Aedes aegypti related diseases in Brazilian regions that used to be immune, due to the geographic location and severe winters, shows that Brazilian public health is not prepared to deal with Aedes aegypti development. We propose a fuzzy rule-based system to measure the influence of sanitation and rain lack over the Aedes aegypti population dynamics. The system entries are fuzzy sets that involve four linguistic variables, which are the percentage of the urban population, as well as the percentage of served population by water supply, frequents solid waste collection, and sanitary sewerage. We use real data disclosed by the Brazilian institutions IBGE and SNIS (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics; Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento - Brazilian sanitation information system). The system output feeds a characteristic parameter, which aims to quantify the contribution attributed to the basic sanitation of the city on the maintenance of breeding sites of Aedes aegypti during periods without rain. The fuzzy system provides a value that represents a parameter, which we couple to the age and stage-structured population projection matrix model for Aedes aegypti. A value closer to 0 means that the sanitation panorama of the city is ideal, and the Aedes aegypti population development is limited, according to lower precipitation periods. Spite of the slow development due to the water sources' lack, it is sensitive to temperature and individuals' age. Through the model, basic sanitation plays a role over stimuli for the quiescent egg, and mortality of larva and pupa during periods with a few precipitation millimeters episodes. Through this analysis, we are forecasting population dynamics fluctuations in drier periods, which is highly influenced by basic sanitation in municipalities that offer precarious sanitation services.